Markets enter the second half of 2026 with strong underlying fundamentals, as well as a range of risks to monitor, including shifting inflation dynamics, evolving central bank policy amid leadership changes, and the persistent fog of geopolitical uncertainty.
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2026 Midyear Outlook
Shifting gears: New drivers of potential market expansion
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Please read important information at the end of this program. Recorded on 6/11/2026 and 6/16/2026.
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Chris Hyzy
Chief Investment Officer
Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank
Chris Hyzy
Hi, I'm Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. And welcome to the Midyear Outlook for 2026.
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Midyear Progress Report:
- Global economic resilience
- Solid U.S. consumer spending
- Accelerating investment
As we cross midfield, investors are navigating a market that's sending a host of mixed signals. On the one hand, the global economy continues to show resilience. U.S. consumer spending remains solid. Corporate balance sheets are healthy, and investment, particularly in artificial intelligence, infrastructure and energy, is accelerating.
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Midyear Progress Report:
- Heightened geopolitical tensions
- Steadily elevated inflation
- Historically high bond yields
Chris Hyzy
Now, at the same time, new headwinds have emerged. Geopolitical tensions have pushed energy prices higher and added volatility. Inflation continues to drive rising costs. We've also seen bond yields edge into historically high territory. Expectations for rate cuts have been pushed out significantly, and markets are even debating whether hikes may be necessary. Add to this a midterm election in November, and you've got more than a few factors to stay on top of. In this Midyear Outlook webcast, we'll explore how these themes may impact markets as gears shift and new drivers of potential growth emerge.
First up, to get his read on the U.S. economy, I'm talking with Aditya Bhave, head of U.S. Economic Research at BofA Global Research.
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Chris Hyzy
Aditya, thanks for joining me today. A new week, a new month, a new quarter. So many new developments out there. Not just in the States, around the world. But let's focus on the United States right now, particularly the economic cycle. We all talk about CapEx, capital investment, as being this big driver of this particular cycle. But there's more to it than that. Start at the top. Tell us exactly what the main drivers of this particular cycle are.
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Aditya Bhave
Head of U.S. Economic Research
BofA Global Research
Aditya Bhave
Right. Thank you for having me. I think there are two major pillars of U.S. growth right now. One is the consumer. That has just been very, very resilient even through the ongoing gas price shock. And the other, of course, is AI-related CapEx.
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Pillars of U.S. growth:
- Resilient U.S. consumer
- Artificial intelligence related CapEx
Aditya Bhave
So those two pillars are essentially keeping the U.S. economy humming along. We think growth is roughly around trend: 2%, give or take. While other sectors such as residential investment or CapEx outside of AI, those have been somewhat soft, probably because rates have been so elevated for so long.
Chris Hyzy
And let's let's go back to capital investment. The productivity side of the equation is not yet there, completely visible. What's the timing of this?
Aditya Bhave
So we've already seen a pickup in productivity growth. That's not necessarily due to AI. It actually started soon after the pandemic. So call it about 2021 before AI was the big story and it's continued since then.
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U.S. productivity growth at 2.1% through Q1 2026.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 4, 2026.
Aditya Bhave
So now we're trending around 2% productivity growth. Whereas in the previous cycle we were trending around 1.5%. Now that's really helpful because what is GDP growth? GDP growth is essentially growth in the working population. Growth in hours worked plus growth in labor productivity. So with changes to immigration policy, we're not expecting much from the hours side, from the population side.
Chris Hyzy
And so one of the antidotes that productivity can be is against inflation. With such a buildout that's going on. What's the worry from your perspective on inflation?
Aditya Bhave
Inflation is a problem. It's not just the Iran conflict. Core PCE inflation, which is what the Fed looks at, had significant upside surprises in December, January, February, March, April, and now looking like May. And a lot of that is not a function of Iran. The question going forward is, is this reflation? So, a demand acceleration, or is it stagflation where it's a supply shock? And we'd probably say the outlook has elements of both.
Chris Hyzy
You've also talked about in in prior episodes about this dynamic of, of your children running in opposite directions. So let's go to the Fed. New chairperson in Kevin Warsh. What's going on, in your opinion, over the next 12 months, what are they going to be faced with?
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Stagflation:
The combination of economic stagnation and high inflation.
Aditya Bhave
So going back to the analogy of the, you know, stagflation being like two kids running in opposite directions, I would say one of those kids has gotten even further away from you. Right? But the labor market actually in the last several months is showing signs of stabilizing. I wouldn't say it's necessarily accelerating. Wages are still tepid. The unemployment rate isn't showing signs of decreasing just yet. But payrolls in the last five months have come in way above what we, and I would imagine most of our peers would have expected. And it's very hard to continue to make the argument that the Fed was making last year that there are clear downside risks to labor. At most, there are very modest downside risk to labor right now. Or you could even say we're pretty much in balance on that side of the mandate, which means that you have to focus more on the inflation side of the mandate.
Chris Hyzy
Final question: the opportunity set and the biggest risk, in your opinion, over the next 6 to 12 months that we should be thinking about.
Aditya Bhave
I think the risks are really interestingly balanced to the upside and the downside. For markets, probably the biggest risk is that the unemployment rate actually starts decreasing. Currently, they think the natural rate is around 4.2%. The unemployment rate is 4.3. So if you get to 4.1, 4%, then really both your kids are running in the same direction, and you got to chase them, right? That's where even I think Kevin Walsh will have a hard time convincing the committee that they should be forward-looking about AI disinflation.
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AI Disinflation:
The potential for artificial intelligence to help slow inflation by cutting labor costs, improving efficiency and expanding supply.
Aditya Bhave
I think the response he would get from the committee is, okay, fine, but we need to deal with this first.
Chris Hyzy
Yeah.
Aditya Bhave
The unemployment rate is falling. It might not be the best thing for markets because the Fed is hiking. But that is an economy that is really churning, right? In terms of, activity. Demand would be picking up in that world. Probably lower income spending might also pick up. We've seen the K-shaped consumer. Obviously higher income folks are already doing great, but if lower income starts to pick up because now they're finding jobs, now they're starting to see wage inflation, then you could be in a true demand boom. It would be inflationary. But from a growth perspective, it would be great.
Chris Hyzy
And hopefully that K narrows itself.
Aditya Bhave
Yes. And hopefully narrows itself in the right way. And we might just be seeing tentative signs. I'm going to say it's very tentative for now, but we might be seeing signs that that's happening.
Chris Hyzy
I think that's a great place to stop. Aditya, I want to thank you for joining me today.
Aditya Bhave
Thanks for having me.
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Chris Hyzy
With that grounding in the economic picture, let's turn to Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy for BofA Global Research, for her view on what's ahead for equity markets in the latter half of 2026.
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Chris Hyzy
Savita, I want to thank you so much for joining me today. There's a lot to go through here, but let's start right at the top. The market volatility of 2025 gave investors a big taste of what they've experienced so far this year. And yet the S&P 500 has shrugged off a lot of these shocks to the system and surpassed the annual growth target that you were expecting coming into 2026. But also what is not talked about enough is the fact that you were looking for better than expected earnings growth than much of the consensus. So in your opinion, how likely is this pattern of upward slog as we say, going to continue in the back half of the year?
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Savita Subramanian
Head of U.S. Equity & Quantitative Strategy
BofA Global Research
Savita Subramanian
Yeah. It's been a wonderfully, positively surprising year in terms of earnings growth and to your point, we started the year very bullish on the economy, very bullish on corporate profits growth. We penciled in something like 15% growth for the year which we thought was very aggressive. And then after first quarter earnings season, we actually revised those numbers higher to about 20% growth.
We're still a little bit above consensus when it comes to earnings. And that's really where we see the corporate sector delivering in a very meaningful way. What is also exciting here is that we're seeing earnings not just come from one cohort of the market, which is what we've seen over the last couple of years, you know, just a very tech driven earnings recovery.
But now we're starting to see other sectors really kick in and start to deliver very pronounced growth. And I think the statistic that that amazes me is even outside of technology, we're seeing double digit growth rates from, from the rest of the S&P 500. So this is really a broad and strong earnings recovery that has already defied expectations. Earnings are not the problem for the corporate sector this year.
Chris Hyzy
Now that's a very, very good point. Now let's talk about the most recent round of corporate earnings, which were the best in years. You talked a lot about earnings growth with companies outside the tech space in general and outside the large technology giants performing as well. Are we seeing a market expansion, a renewed concentration or just both happening at the same time?
Savita Subramanian
Yeah. You know, the short answer is both. Both are happening at the same time. So tech still delivers the strongest growth. But what we're seeing is an actual deceleration in technology growth and an acceleration or a very strong pickup outside of tech. And I would highlight the sectors that are really kicking in are more commodities based. So we're really seeing a big upward revision to energy to materials.
And this makes sense to us because beyond just geopolitical risk driving oil prices higher or lower, we're also seeing demand, at a very high pace for traditional CapEx. So building out structures. And when you think of a data center, it sounds like tech spend, but it actually creates spend for all sorts of other channels like energy, gas, oil or metals, labor, skilled manufacturing, labor.
Interestingly, we are seeing a pickup in spending trends in our own BofA data around areas that are in, in the process of constructing data centers and, and tech buildout. So what we're seeing is a really organic growth story, maybe spawned by AI spending, but really broadening out to all sorts of different channels in the market.
The one area where we're seeing a bit of a lag in terms of delivering on earnings is in the consumer discretionary sector. So we haven't necessarily seen consumer spending accelerate from the levels that we've seen over the last few years. Still healthy but not necessarily growing as quickly as other areas of the economy, which really drives our outlook for focusing as investors on companies that benefit from manufacturing CapEx, rather than just the consumption themes that have driven leadership over the last couple of decades now.
Chris Hyzy
That's great. That's great. We like to say focus on the trendlines not the headlines. But there is a lot of headline risk out there. So final question, what risks are you still worried about in general as we sit here today, right around the midyear point of 2026. And if we had to touch on one of the biggest opportunities that is still yet untapped, what is that in your view?
Savita Subramanian
Yeah, I think that, that the risks are around the idea of change and change always comes with some surprises. So when I think of the second half of the year, and when I think about the lofty expectations that are already baked into a lot of these mega-cap growth stocks, I think that the likelihood for disappointment, rather than continued positive surprise looms large.
On the flip side, when I look at areas of the economy where folks have been bearish and correctly bearish for a while, IE you know, inflation impacting that lower income cohort of consumers. That's one area where we're starting to see some building strength. And perhaps it's because of manufacturing labor tightness. Perhaps it's because of immigration reform and tighter labor markets in areas like construction, agriculture services. There are a lot of different reasons for this. Tax reform has, done a lot to benefit that lower income cohort.
And we're now starting to see better spending trends in that area of the market, which is one of the drivers for our overweight in consumer staples companies. Consumer staples is a sector that doesn't get a lot of airtime, but it is a very stable kind of a defensive area of the market that tends to hold up really well during periods of consumer uncertainty, and we think we might be heading into one of those periods in the second half of the year.
No matter what, we all have to eat. And it's a simple statement, but it actually proves to be correct over and over again. In every recession or every slowdown in consumption, we've seen consumer staples companies contribute the same amount to earnings that they generally do. Very stable. And today we find a lot of opportunities for inexpensive, defensive, higher quality areas within that sector.
So I think that could be a really interesting opportunity in the second half of the year. I also like the idea of playing that manufacturing recovery through parts of industrials, energy, materials, commodities, real assets over financial assets. Those are areas that we are really excited about. And interestingly, when you look at the valuation of the average stock in the S&P 500, it's not expensive. And in fact, based on, historical returns, the average stock in the S&P 500 is likely to live to deliver about 6 to 7% price returns over the next ten years per annum, which is a pretty healthy level of returns, inflation protection, etc.. So we're really bullish on a lot of different parts of the S&P 500. Just at the index level, we worry a little bit about the supply demand dynamics within technology and other risks that may not be priced in to some of these mega-cap growth companies.
Chris Hyzy
That's a great place to end. Thanks so much for joining me, Savita.
Savita Subramanian
Thank you, Chris.
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Chris Hyzy
Now let's turn to how investors might consider bringing these insights into their own investment decisions. For that, I'm joined by three experts from the Chief Investment Office: Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy; Matt Diczok, head of Cross-asset Market Strategy; and Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy.
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Chris Hyzy
Marci, Matt, Joe, thanks for being here today. Marcy, let's start with you right out of the gates. Big downdraft. March 30th was the low for most of the equity indices, not just in the States, but also overseas. Big move up. Most of it coming in May. One of the largest moves overall in May. But as we sit here today with everything going on, what is our overall portfolio strategy message to clients and advisors?
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Marci McGregor
Head of Portfolio Strategy
Chief Investment Office
Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank
Marci McGregor
First and foremost, I want to be well diversified. If you think about the speed of the recovery that we saw in the first half of the year, the S&P 500 made over 20 new all-time highs. But bull markets pause, they digest gains. They consolidate. Pullbacks are normal. Volatility is the price of investing.
Chris Hyzy
And they cause concern too. When it happens.
Marci McGregor
They do. When it happens it doesn't feel good. But we want to stay the course. Because if we take a big step back what we know is the growth engine fueled by artificial intelligence, the re-industrialization of the economy, it's driving corporate profits. That's our strongest fundamental factor right now.
Chris Hyzy
Matt, I want to go to you. Looking across asset classes, where's the opportunity set? What are you seeing, given the fact that we're about to get somewhat concerned about what Warsh may or may not do?
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Matthew Diczok
Head of Cross-Asset Market Strategy
Chief Investment Office
Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank
Matt Diczok
Gotcha. So the three most important questions are, first off, are rates that far away from where the need to be right now?
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Interest Rate Questions for Investors to Consider:
- Are rates generally at the right level for this economy?
- Can the Fed protect the economy from unforeseen events?
- How are valuations for investors?
Chris Hyzy
Is that on a real basis or just absolute?
Matt Diczok
Both on a real or nominal basis. Are they in a zone that's not too far away from where they should be? would be the first question I'd ask myself.
The second question would be, if there's something that happens we didn't foresee. If there's a downdraft in the economy, in markets, does the Fed have enough room to cut to protect the economy?
The third thing is ask your question, okay, how are those valuations for investors? On each of those questions, things look good. Rates right now — again, where we are generally on long rates and short rates — are approximately where they should be.
Chris Hyzy
Excellent. So with that as a broader backdrop, Joe, you and I've talked about this a lot. We still have the military campaign going on, obviously, a lot longer than what anyone expected or what was perceived to be when it first began. What signals are we seeing out there?
Joe Quinlan
Well, they're betting on, Chris, that there's enough oil reserves out there still to be drawn down. Yeah. And that is help keep oil prices where they're at.
Joe Quinlan
But it's remarkable that we've drawn down oil reserves. The U.S. now is exporting three 6 million barrels a day. So that's help alleviate some of the pressures as well. And companies done a fabulous job working their way through the uncertainty around petrochemical stocks. Crude oil prices had to revert. And now we're exporting instead of importing. So companies that have done a very good job working their way through this oil price shock.
Chris Hyzy
Perfect. Marci, let's go back to you. The industry landscape is hyper focused a lot and has been for many decades on sectors. Sectors at least in my opinion, are very disparate. Right. There's a lot of different industry groups in there. But just stepping back a second for those who involve themselves in sector-based investment. What are our thoughts?
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Sectors to Watch:
- Defense industrials
- Aerospace
- Manufacturing
- Financials
- Consumer discretionary
Marci McGregor
Yeah. So I would start with industrials. So we talked about geopolitics in this red hot geopolitical world we live in. There's parts of the industrial sector that are going to be really interesting here. Defense spending is a global story, not just a U.S. story. Backlogs for aerospace. Manufacturing is a real bright spot in the economy for the first time in years in 2026.
Chris Hyzy
So some policy tailwinds there.
Marci McGregor
Absolutely. from the One Big Beautiful Bill of last year. So industrials I think is a really interesting spot. I also like financials. You know, for all of our anxiety about the state of the consumer, the consumer balance sheet is healthy. That tells me that the credit backdrop for the banks is healthy. Net interest income is on a positive trajectory. So I think the banks are interesting. And then finally, we still like consumer discretionary because what you're seeing in consumer spending, headline data is really strong. But the strength is really in higher income households that do the lion's share of spending in the U.S.
Chris Hyzy
Right. We're going to go into the lightning round right now. Matt, I'm going to start with you. Number one question we get when market concentration comes back, when the semiconductors, when the mega caps drive a good portion of the headlines and the trendlines. Is AI in a bubble?
Matt Diczok
Right. Well, is it a bubble now? We have to be careful and modest and humble on that. Alan Greenspan, December 1996 had actually asked irrational exuberance. Markets are exuberant now. Nasdaq was about 1300. Yeah, 97, 98, 99, 2000 20-30% of profit equity returns. The Nasdaq went over 5000. So instead of trying to exactly call the bubble being diversified, making sure you've got some fixed income, looking at public and private markets, being diversified and not worrying about when focusing on the signal and not the noise makes the most of that, trying to call it because that time for a bubble is very difficult.
Chris Hyzy
Right? And Marci that's the difference between looking at just the numerator, the price of something, and not focusing so much on, well, is it justified based on the denominator, their earnings growth. What are your thoughts on AI, bubble or not.
Marci McGregor
I would make two quick points. One, valuations are apples and oranges. But my second point would be the CapEx cycle that we keep talking about. That's so important. I still want to be well diversified. We're believers in the broadening of the market. It's not just, you know, the AI leaders we're talking about today. There's going to be so many industries impacted and benefited from the efficiency gains. So I want to be ready for a broadening in the market. But I think the valuation conversation is very different than in early 2000.
Chris Hyzy
I think that's a great point, Joe. Final thought here.
Joe Quinlan
Well, Chris, are we in a bubble? How can you be in a bubble if you're sitting on $7 trillion sitting in money market funds earning 4%? But we have a lot of dry powder out there. Conservative placed asset in cash. Yes, it could be a little frothy. But remember, what's this all mean? A more productive leading edge U.S. economy that's going to create great returns long term.
Chris Hyzy
We didn't mention a concern that is yet to come. We talk about it, but it's probably post Federal Reserve policy concerns, post Middle East campaign concerns. It's the midterms. Joe, I'm going to start with you. Bigger risk than we're making it out to be?
Joe Quinlan
The midterm. Yes. We're watching it. Volatility comes around. But I think that's an issue for post Labor Day. But right now, as we talked about, affordability is the issue. We'll see what the voter turnout is. But I really think, the midterm election, Chris, tees up 2028. I think the market will go right to that point once we get beyond November.
Chris Hyzy
But what is history told us post that for the fourth quarter and then the following 12 months, Marcy.
Marci McGregor
Markets are like humans: they like when the election's in the rearview mirror. So from midterm election one year out, the S&P 500 has been positive 100% of the time going back to World War Two. So volatility would be a buying opportunity in our view. An opportunity to reposition. But as long as fundamentals are intact, you know, here's to that trend keeping intact.
Chris Hyzy
Final thought here. Top risk that we should all keep at the top of our, blotter here and top opportunity. Matt, let's start with you.
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Key Risks to Consider:
- Rise in geopolitical turmoil
- Blue collar labor scarcity
- Inflation forcing rate hikes
Key Potential Opportunities:
- Attractive real yields, globally
- China's biotech sector
- Small-cap future leaders
Matt Diczok
The top risk is any increased geopolitical tension from this point. We obviously have a high level geopolitical tension, but that's expected. So as long as we're in this based on, we're fine. But if there's any escalation from here that would that would certainly be a concern in terms of the opportunities that again, we're in a much better place right now in terms of valuations across equities and fixed income generally.
Matt Diczok
This is a good time to be an investor both in US equities and non-U.S. equities and in fixed income. If we have the same conversation 10-15 years ago, you weren't getting anything of fixed income in terms of real returns. Now, you have the ability to diversify with fixed income globally. Again, you've got this re-industrialization, defense spending, globally.
Matt Diczok
So are drivers of global economic growth. So there's an opportunity to be diversified, take assets across countries, across geographies, across sectors. And from here long term returns should be quite good in our opinion.
Chris Hyzy
Joe.
Joe Quinlan
Key risk, Chris, I think, is just the lack of labor. Blue collar workers, in that sense. Use their hands, get out there in shipyards. Do the roofing, landscaping. We need those people. And they're not only source of demand, but the supply and demand is very, very, very important. So we need that. That's number one.
Kind of the opportunity. I'm going to throw you a little curveball here. China life sciences. China biotech. They're doing some amazing things in China. So there's a new opportunity out there, X the U.S., we're watching very carefully from the CIO. It's not liquid or transparent or available just yet, but it's high on my radar screen.
Chris Hyzy
Excellent Marci, final word...
Marci McGregor
I would watch inflation not our base case, but inflation that moved out of that sweet spot for equities in turn maybe causing a Fed to go from an easing bias to a hiking bias. Again, not the base case, but that would rattle markets. And opportunity, I want to think about the leaders of tomorrow. Matt mentioned private companies. I would also think about small caps when I think about U.S. equities, because we know market leadership changes decade over decade. So think about who will be leading the market tomorrow.
Chris Hyzy
At all comes back to profits. I want to thank you all for joining me today. Marcy, Matt and Joe, thanks again.
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Chris Hyzy
Looking ahead, the foundation for growth remains in place. Supported by resilient consumers, strong corporate earnings and continued investment in key sectors. However, markets are evolving. Volatility remains elevated and inflation and interest rates may stay higher for longer than expected.
Chris Hyzy
Investors should remain diversified, disciplined and focused on long term opportunities. Midyear is a great time to consult with your advisor. If you work with one about how these insights may fit into your overall portfolio strategy and support your financial goals. I'm Chris Hyzy. Thanks for watching.
On screen disclosures:
Important Disclosures:
The opinions expressed are as of 6/11/2026 and 6/16/2026 and are subject to change.
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